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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 60

Miami Dolphins 13 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to DAL 2, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-22-E.Campbell.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.96 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 60, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 19, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model