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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 73

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to MIA 13, Center-44-T.Sieg. 0-B.Berrios ran ob at MIA 29 for 16 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 73, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 31, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model