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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 5

Miami Dolphins 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(11:06) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 11-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.97 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 5, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model