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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 10

Baltimore Ravens 0 – San Francisco 49ers 5

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.77 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP