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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 45

San Francisco 49ers 12 – Baltimore Ravens 33

What Actually Happened

(14:57) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to BAL 46 for -1 yards (32-M.Williams) [0-R.Smith].

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.64 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model