Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 60

San Francisco 49ers 12 – Baltimore Ravens 30

(9:32) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to BAL 5, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-36-J.McNichols.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.69 EP
55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 60, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model