Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 75

San Francisco 49ers 12 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 57 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-T.Pepper. 16-T.Wallace pushed ob at BAL 41 for 23 yards (24-J.Mason). PENALTY on SF-18-M.Wishnowsky, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 41.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 75, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model