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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 1 at the 1
Baltimore Ravens 3 – San Francisco 49ers 5
What Actually Happened
(9:38) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.80 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.54 EP
- 33% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.31 EP
KICK
+1.53 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
- 1% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT
-0.42 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
