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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 50

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 12-B.Gillikin punts 40 yards to CHI 10, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.73 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 50, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model