Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 73

Arizona Cardinals 16 – Chicago Bears 24

(3:03) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 83-G.Dortch.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.28 EP
60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 73, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.64 EP