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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 78

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 12-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to CHI 26, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.10 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 78, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 35, worth -2.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model