Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 77

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Chicago Bears 21

(6:49) 12-B.Gillikin punts 77 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.33 EP
68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 77, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model