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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 53

Chicago Bears 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 16-T.Gill punts 44 yards to ARI 9, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-20-T.Homer.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.27 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP