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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 17 at the 82

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 12-B.Gillikin punts 36 yards to CHI 46, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-45-D.Gardeck.

The Three Options

GO -3.28 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 82, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 40, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model