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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 3

Washington Commanders 14 – Los Angeles Rams 28

What Actually Happened

(1:50) (Shotgun) 12-J.Brissett pass short middle to 4-C.Samuel for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.00 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 3, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model