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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 4

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 8-L.Havrisik 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +3.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.44 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 4, worth +0.64 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP