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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 25

Los Angeles Rams 28 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 8-L.Havrisik 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.72 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model