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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 87

Washington Commanders 7 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(:25) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to LA 49, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-2-D.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.54 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 87, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 45, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model