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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 41

Washington Commanders 0 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(8:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin pushed ob at LA 24 for 17 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.42 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model