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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 91

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 42-E.Evans punts 54 yards to WAS 37, Center-46-C.Tinker. 83-J.Crowder to LA 48 for 15 yards (18-B.Skowronek).

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.98 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 91, worth -5.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 48, worth -2.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model