4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 44

Washington Commanders 0 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to LA 8, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 81-A.Trammell to LA 12 for 4 yards (34-C.Holmes; 2-D.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.41 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP