Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 18 at the 69

Washington Commanders 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(:39) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way Aborted. 54-C.Cheeseman FUMBLES at WAS 24, touched at WAS 17, recovered by WAS-5-T.Way at WAS 15. WAS-5-T.Way was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

What Happened

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.77 EP
74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 69, worth -3.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.21 EP