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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 68

Washington Commanders 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to LA 28, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.51 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 68, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 26, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model