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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 40

Arizona Cardinals 7 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 5-M.Prater 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.97 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.34 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model