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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 25

San Francisco 49ers 42 – Arizona Cardinals 22

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 4-J.Moody 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.42 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model