4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 54

Arizona Cardinals 16 – San Francisco 49ers 35

What Actually Happened

(12:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 83-G.Dortch to SF 49 for 5 yards (57-D.Greenlaw).

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.72 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model