Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 13 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 12-B.Gillikin punts 62 yards to SF 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 10-R.Bell to SF 12 for 4 yards (83-G.Dortch). FUMBLES (83-G.Dortch), RECOVERED by ARI-32-J.Blount at SF 12. 32-J.Blount for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 12-B.Gillikin punts 62 yards to SF 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 10-R.Bell to SF 12 for 4 yards (83-G.Dortch).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model