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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 71

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to ARI 31, Center-46-T.Pepper. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 31 for no gain (26-I.Oliver).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 29, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model