Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-R.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by 83-Co.Heyward, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by PIT-51-Ni.Herbig at IND 1. 51-Ni.Herbig to IND 1 for no gain (20-N.Cross). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model