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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 1

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 10-M.Trubisky up the middle to IND 1 for no gain (45-E.Speed). FUMBLES (45-E.Speed), recovered by PIT-22-N.Harris at IND 1. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-M.Trubisky up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 1, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model