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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 24

Indianapolis Colts 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(:52) 7-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +2.01 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model