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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 25

Indianapolis Colts 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 7-M.Gay 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.81 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP