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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 37

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:35) 7-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.11 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model