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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 64

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(6:40) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at IND 49 for 15 yards (40-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.38 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 64, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 22, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EP