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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 13

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 7-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model