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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 14 at the 39

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 6-P.Harvin punts 22 yards to IND 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.30 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 39, worth -2.14 EP
KICK +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP