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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 11

Indianapolis Colts 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 7-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +3.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.39 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP