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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 67

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(:54) 6-P.Harvin punts 55 yards to IND 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs to IND 26 for 14 yards (13-M.Boykin).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.29 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 67, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 25, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model