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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 62

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to IND 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs to IND 31 for 11 yards (17-T.Thompson, 83-Co.Heyward).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.50 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 62, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model