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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 54

Denver Broncos 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.55 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 54, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 16, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP