Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 79

Denver Broncos 0 – Detroit Lions 0

(8:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to DET 27, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 11-K.Raymond to DET 27 for no gain (37-R.Moss).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 79, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model