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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 10

Detroit Lions 35 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +3.78 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 10, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.09 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -1.10 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model