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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 13

Denver Broncos 10 – Detroit Lions 35

What Actually Happened

(6:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-S.Perine up the middle to DET 1 for 12 yards (31-K.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO +2.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.89 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 13, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 23, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model