Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 19 at the 86

Detroit Lions 35 – Denver Broncos 10

(9:29) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to DEN 38, Center-43-J.McQuaide, downed by DET-44-M.Rodriguez.

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.70 EP
72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 86, worth -4.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model