4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 56

Denver Broncos 10 – Detroit Lions 35

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to DET 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond. PENALTY on DEN-1-Tr.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DET 8.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.63 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 56, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model