Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 0 – Chicago Bears 0

(4:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to CHI 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-T.Taylor MUFFS catch, and recovers at CHI 19.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.90 EP
68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 63, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model