Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 78

Chicago Bears 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

(7:25) 16-T.Gill punts 55 yards to CLE 23, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-J.Proche pushed ob at CLE 37 for 14 yards (20-T.Homer).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.59 EP
55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 78, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model