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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 16

Cleveland Browns 17 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(:36) 7-D.Hopkins 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +2.33 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 16, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26, worth -0.32 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model