Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 77

Chicago Bears 17 – Cleveland Browns 17

(2:00) 16-T.Gill punts 56 yards to CLE 21, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 77, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model