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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 47

Cleveland Browns 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 30 yards to CHI 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.25 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP